The price of agave in Mexican states holding Designation of Origin of Tequila status, and its systematic depreciation over the forthcoming decade (2000-2031)

Main Article Content

Rafael Díaz Castellanos
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4780-5386

Abstract

In the last two decades, the price of agave in states holding Designation of Origin of Tequila (DOT) status has been subject to uncertainty. This mixed sequential investigation identifies the variables that affect its value, verifying the cause of the problem. Using Minitab software, Pearson’s correlation analysis is applied to the most important variables and time-series predictive methods are applied to forecast them. The correlation analysis verified that the production of agave is not correlated with its price, in contrast to the production of tequila, its export and the income from its export. Since 2016, the price and production of agave systematically reduced its annual average growth until reaching negative levels in 2021, contrary to the production, export of tequila and its  income (the five variables maintain this trend for the next 10 years). It is shown that the problem of the agave price at the end of the last decade is not due to imbalances in its supply, suggesting that the oligopoly of leading companies of the tequila agroindustry in Mexico controls its value.

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How to Cite
Díaz Castellanos, R. (2023). The price of agave in Mexican states holding Designation of Origin of Tequila status, and its systematic depreciation over the forthcoming decade (2000-2031). The Anáhuac Journal, 23(2), 12–37. https://doi.org/10.36105/theanahuacjour.2023v23n2.01
Section
Artículos
Author Biography

Rafael Díaz Castellanos, Independent grower, México

Rafael Díaz Castellanos holds a degree in International Trade from the Autonomous University of Guadalajara (2001). He has completed five master’s degrees in the following specialties: Management Skills (UNIVER); Administration Specialty Mkt (TecMilenio); Logistics and Foreign Trade (Universidad Anáhuac Sur); Administration Specialty in Quality and Productivity (TecMilenio) and Stock Market and Corporate Finance (Universidad Anáhuac Sur). He is currently a PhD candidate for the Doctorate in
Strategic Analysis and Sustainable Development at the Universidad Anáhuac MAYAB. He is a partner – owner of the ranch Los Sauces in the state of Jalisco, Mexico, dedicated to sustainable forestry production and purchase-sale of agricultural machinery.

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