El impacto de la liquidez del mercado bursátil en el crecimiento económico: evidencia de los países BRICS

Contenido principal del artículo

Samuel Mongrut Montalvan
Vivian
Roberto Castillo Dieguez
Pilar Álvarez Franco

Resumen

Este artículo analiza la relación entre la liquidez bursátil y el crecimiento económico en cinco países emergentes: Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica, conocidos como BRICS desde 2017. Mediante un modelo dinámico de datos de panel, observamos que las variables asociadas a la liquidez bursátil contienen información clave sobre la economía real. Nuestros resultados son robustos incluso después de controlar las covariables macroeconómicas que afectan al mercado bursátil y al crecimiento económico. Presentamos evidencia de que la liquidez bursátil contiene información sólida y robusta sobre la situación económica de los BRICS durante el período 2010-2017. Nuestro estudio destaca que la liquidez bursátil contiene noticias prospectivas e información sobre el estado futuro del crecimiento económico.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Detalles del artículo

Sección

Artículos

Biografía del autor/a

Samuel Mongrut Montalvan, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Peru. Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Mexico

Samuel Mongrut holds a Ph.D. in Financial Economics from the University of Barcelona (Spain), a master’s in Economics from the University of Maastricht (Netherlands), and a bachelor’s in Business Administration from Universidad del Pacífico, Peru. He is currently a professor of Finance at the Universidad del Pacifico and the Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Mexico. He is also a visiting professor at several universities in Europe and Latin America, member of the National System of Researchers in Peru and Mexico, member of the research group for Investment Analysis and Uncertainty (IAFI) of the University of Barcelona, Spain, and member of the Board of the International Finance Conference (IFC).

Vivian, Universidad del Pacífico, Lima, Peru

Vivian Cruz is a Professor in the Department of Finance of the Universidad del Pacifico, and member of its Research Center. She holds a PhD in Economics and a master’s degree in Finance from Universidad EAFIT, Colombia, and a degree in Economics from the University of Havana (Cuba). She has research experience in banking, financial fragility, financial inclusion, microcredit, and financial modeling. She has worked as a consultant for institutions such as the IDB, the World Bank, ECLAC, and LACADI (Latin American Climate Asset Disclosure Initiative).

Roberto Castillo Dieguez, Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, Mexico

Roberto Castillo Dieguez is a professor and researcher at the School of Accounting and Administration of the Autonomous University of Querétaro (UAQ). He holds a master’s degree in Analytics and Business Intelligence from the Universidad Tecnológica de México. Castillo Dieguez is full member of the Academia de Ciencias Administrativas A.C.—Academy of Administrative Sciences— (ACACIA) and the Red Internacional de Investigadores en Educación a Distancia, en Línea y Abierta (REDIC)—International Research Network on Distance, Online, and Open Education. His research focuses on territorial development, evaluation, multivariate statistics, finance, and econometrics. He was awarded the National Research Award by the ANFECA—Asociación Nacional de Facultades y Escuelas de Economía y Administración— in 2024 and received second place at the International Finance Conference, held in Durango in 2023 and Lima in 2024.

Pilar Álvarez Franco, Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia

Pilar Álvarez Franco works as a professor of Finance at Universidad EAFIT and a researcher at the Center for Research in Economics and Finance. Her academic work focuses on financial inclusion, financial education, financial well-being, and credit risk analysis using alternative data, with particular emphasis on vulnerable populations and gender gaps in access to financial services. She has led impact evaluations, designed financial well-being indicators, and conducted applied studies in collaboration with government agencies, NGOs, and financial institutions. She holds a Ph.D. in Business Administration from CENTRUM PUCP and a master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the State University of New York at Binghamton.

Cómo citar

El impacto de la liquidez del mercado bursátil en el crecimiento económico: evidencia de los países BRICS. (2025). The Anáhuac Journal, 25(2), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.36105/

Referencias

Agudelo Rueda, D. A. (2010). Liquidez en los mercados accionarios colombianos: ¿cuánto hemos avanzado en los últimos 10 años? Cuadernos de Administración, 23 (40), 239-269. http://hdl.handle.net/10784/652

Amihud, Y. (2002). Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects. Journal of Financial Markets, 5(1), 31–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1386-4181(01)00024-6

Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1991). Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on US Treasury Securities. The Journal of Finance, 46 (4), 1411–1425. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04623.x

Apergis, N., Artikis, P. G., and Kyriazis, D. (2015). Does Stock Market Liquidity Explain Real Economic Activity? New Evidence from Two Large European Stock Markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 38, 42–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.05.002

Apergis, N., Lau, C. K., and Xu, B. (2023). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Liquidity: Fresh Evidence on Listed Chinese Firms. International Review of Financial Analysis, 90, 102847. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102847

Bao Dinh, N., & Tran, V. N. H. (2024). Institutional Ownership and Stock Liquidity: Evidence from an Emerging Market. SAGE Open, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241239116

Bloomberg. (n.d.). Bloomberg – Business and Financial News. https://www.bloomberg.com

Chikwira, C., & Mohammed, J. I. (2023). The Impact of the Stock Market on Liquidity and Economic Growth: Evidence of Volatile Market. Economies, 11(6), 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060155

Chipaumire, G., & Ngirande, H. (2014). How Stock Market Liquidity Impact Economic Growth in South Africa. Journal of Economics, 5 (2), 185–192. https://tinyurl.com/y2t2j94z

Chowdhury, A., Uddin, M., and Anderson, K. (2017). Liquidity and Macroeconomic Management in Emerging Markets. Emerging Markets Review,34, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2017.10.001

Chowdhury, H., Hasan, M. M., Luong, H., and Xu, S. (2024). Do CEOs’ Industry Tournament Incentives Affect Stock Liquidity? Corporate Governance: An International Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/corg.12623

Cooper, S. K., Groth, J. C., & Avera, W. E. (1985). Liquidity, Exchange Listing, and Common Stock Performance. Journal of Economics and Business, 37(1), 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-6195(85)90003-7

Chu, L. K., & Chu, H. V. (2020). Is Too Much Liquidity Harmful to Economic Growth? The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 230-242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.07.002

Elliott, T., Fatemi, D., Kim, J.C., & Su, Q. (2025). The Impact of Terrorism on Liquidity and Information Asymmetry: Evidence from Non-U.S. Stocks Listed on the NYSE. Defence and Peace Economics, 36(3), 307–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2024.2332168

Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45–61. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2646728

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (n.d.). FRED – Economic data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org

Florackis, C., Giorgioni, G., Kostakis, A., & Milas, C. (2014). On Stock Market Illiquidity and Real-Time GDP Growth. Journal of International Money and Finance, 44, 210– 229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.02.006

Galariotis, E., & Giouvris, E. (2015). On the Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle: A Multi Country Approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 38, 44–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.009

Guru, B. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from BRICS. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 113-126. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-12-2017-0125

Huang, S., Maharjan, J., & Nanda, V. (2024). Liquid Stock as an Acquisition Currency. Journal of Corporate Finance, 85, 102562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102562

Im, H. J., Selvam, S., & Tan, K. J. K. (2024). Effect of Stock Liquidity on the Economic Value of Patents: Evidence from US Patent Data. International Review of Financial Analysis, 94, 103314. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103314

Jun, S.G., Marathe, A., & Shawky, H. A. (2003). Liquidity and Stock Returns in Emerging Equity Markets. Emerging Markets Review, 4(1), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1566-0141(02)00060-2

Kim, J.C., Mazumder, S., & Su, Q. (2024). Brexit’s Ripple: Probing the Impact on Stock Market Liquidity. Finance Research Letters, 61, 105030. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105030

Levine, R. (1991). Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy. The Journal of Finance, 46(4), 1445–1465. https://doi.org/10.2307/2328866

Liu, W., & Suzuki, Y. (2024). Stock Liquidity, Financial Constraints, and Innovation in Chinese SMEs. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 91. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00597-w

Mattana, E., & Panetti, E. (2014). Bank Liquidity, Stock Market Participation, and Economic Growth. Journal of Banking and Finance, 48, 292-306 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.01.016

Meichle, M., Ranaldo, A., & Zanetti, A. (2011). Do Financial Variables Help Predict the State of the Business Cycle in Small Open Economies? Evidence from Switzerland. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 25(4), 435–453. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-011-0173-y

Muzaffar, Z., & Malik, I. R. (2024). Market Liquidity and Volatility: Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Matter? Evidence from Asian Emerging Economies. PLoS ONE, 19(6), e0301597. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0301597

Næs R., Skjeltorp, J. A., & Ødegaard, B. A. (2011). Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle. The Journal of Finance, 66(1), 139–176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01628.x

O’Hara, M. (2004). Liquidity and Financial Market Stability. (Working Paper 155). National Bank of Belgium Working Paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1691574

Ogunrinola, I. I., & Motilewa, D. B. (2015). Stock Market Liquidity and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980 to 2012). Journal of Economics and International Business Management, 3(6), 2384-7328. https://tinyurl.com/2veejrja

Pan, L., & Mishra, V. (2018). Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 68, 661-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.005

Pant, H. V. (2013). The BRICS Fallacy. The Washington Quarterly, 36(3), 91–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2013.825552

Papavassiliou, V. G. (2013). A New Method for Estimating Liquidity Risk: Insights from a Liquidity-Adjusted CAPM Framework. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 24, 184–197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2012.12.003

Pástor, L’., & Stambaugh, R. F. (2003). Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy, 111(3), 642–685. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/374184

Patra, S., & Hiremath, G. S. (2024). Is There a Time-Varying Nexus between Stock Market Liquidity and Informational Efficiency? Cross-Regional Evidence. Studies in Economics and Finance, 41(4), 796–844. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-12-2022-0558

Refinitiv. (n.d.). Refinitiv – Financial data platform. https://www.refinitiv.com

Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (2000). Equity Markets and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, 1980–1995. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(12), 1933–1957. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00123-5

Shi, S. (2015). Liquidity, Assets and Business Cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 70, 116–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.10.002

Switzer, L. N., & Picard, A. (2016). Stock Market Liquidity and Economic Cycles: A Non-Linear Approach. Economic Modelling, 57, 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.04.006

Uddin, H. (2009). Reexamination of Stock Liquidity Risk with a Relative Measure. Studies in Economics and Finance, 26(1), 24–35. https://doi.org/10.1108/10867370910946306